Sunday, April 27, 2008

Who is weaker?

Obama or Clinton....Clinton or Obama. Perception is reality....or so the saying goes.....

Clinton is hounding Obama about holding debates. Now in the few years I have payed attention to national elections(about 27 years), asking for a debate, demanding to have a debate has always been the province of those who perceive themselves as on the way to losing the election. As such they have little to lose and much to gain by a debate. Another opportunity to take their adversary down another notch or two.

A the leader in an election, as expected, has a lot to lose and little to gain in a debate. The risk of saying something stupid, not having a good answer, or sometimes, just being on the debate stage with the weaker candidate which can be seen as "elevating" them to your level, is not worth what little a candidate can get out of a debate.

I would say that, if nothing else, the Clinton campaign perceives itself to be in a weaker position than Obama.

Clinton has a built a high wall to climb to win the primary. As I see her campaign, her problems are:
1. Her baggage. She has more baggage than pack rat on her way to a pack rat convention. Fair or not, it is still there.

2. She and Bill could have starred in the movie "Liar, Liar!" I do realize that all politicians lie, but she is PERCEIVED as a liar whereas the other two are not perceived that way to any great degree.

Obama also has some problems that will hurt him, albeit more in the general than the primary. Those are:

1. He is an eletist. His remarks in San Francisco leave little to the imagination on that issue. It may have played well in the primary, but it WILL be used to clobber him in the general election.

2. I think his lack of experience will also hurt him in the general election.

McCain also has issues. Mainly that he is seen as, instead of a "compasionate conservative", he is seen as a "part-time conservative".


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